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Report n°3: Financial protection of critical infrastructure
"Dynamic uncertainty"
A significant difference between the terrorist risk and natural disasters is due to the fact that uncertainty connected to terrorist activity is not only high, it is also dynamic. Terrorist groups may adapt their behavior and plans for action to their resources and their knowledge of the vulnerability of potential targets. The terrorist risk is not therefore solidified; it changes over time as a result of numerous parameters (new groups are born and may be dormant for several years, targets and forms of attack are modified, a country's foreign policy may change, anti-terrorist action is or is not effective, etc.).
Although it is possible to reduce damage caused by an earthquake in the Nice area by adopting preventive measures based on well-tried techniques, no one has any influence on the occurrence of the earthquake itself. In contrast, the terrorist risk fluctuates because at any time it is the result of what protection measures have been taken by those exposed to the risk, the action of governments (see below) to increase the level of security, and the determination of terrorist groups to perpetrate an attack: the uncertainty produced by this situation can be described as "dynamic uncertainty". (Michel-Kerjan, 2003).